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What Does the Future Hold for Home Prices?

What Does the Future Hold for Home Prices? | MyKCM

Home prices are at the top of everyone’s minds. Can they maintain their current pace of appreciation? Will rising mortgage rates negatively impact home values? Will the next economic slowdown cause prices to crash?

Let’s try to answer these questions based on what has happened in the past as well as what we know about the current real estate market.

The Impact of Rising Interest Rates

We explained earlier this year that rising mortgage rates have not negatively impacted home prices in the past and probably wouldn’t this time either. Freddie Mac’s comments were very direct:

“In the current housing market, the driving force behind the increase in prices is a low supply of both new and existing homes combined with historically low rates. As mortgage rates increase, the demand for home purchases will likely remain strong relative to the constrained supply and continue to put upward pressure on home prices.”

They were correct. So far this year, home values have continued to appreciate above normal historic percentages and it appears the gradual increase in rates has had little impact on prices.

The Impact of an Economic Slowdown

Many people fear that when the economy turns, we may see the same depreciation in home values as we did a decade ago.

However, we recently reported that the same group of economists, real estate experts, and investment & market strategists who predicted the next recession will occur in the next 18-24 months have also projected that house prices will continue to appreciate for the next five years, albeit at smaller percentages.

It Comes Down to Supply and Demand

As always, home prices will be determined by the demand to purchase compared to the available inventory of homes for sale. For the last six years, demand has far exceeded the available supply which has resulted in the average annual appreciation to top 6% since 2012. That is far greater than the historic norm of 3.6% annual appreciation that we saw prior to the housing boom.

There are currently small signs that housing inventory is slowly beginning to increase. Months supply of houses for sale matched last year’s numbers for the last two months after 37 consecutive months of decreasing inventory. New construction data has also shown positive signs that inventory will be increasing.

As inventory begins to meet demand, we will see appreciation return to more normal levels. We are already seeing projections coming in lower than the 6.2% annual average we have seen more recently.

CoreLogic is predicting that home values will appreciate by 5.1% over the next twelve months and the Home Price Expectation Survey calls for values to increase by 4.2% in 2019.

Bottom Line

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explained it best:

“We’re seeing the first indications that price appreciation may be slowing, but the underlying fundamental housing market conditions support a natural moderation of house prices rather than a sharp decline.”

 

The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.

Posted on September 11, 2018 at 10:39 am
Kara Brem | Posted in Uncategorized |

Housing Market: Another Gigantic Difference Between 2008 and 2018

Housing Market: Another Gigantic Difference Between 2008 and 2018 | MyKCM

Some are attempting to compare the current housing market to the market leading up to the “boom and bust” that we experienced a decade ago. They look at price appreciation and conclude that we are on a similar trajectory, speeding toward another housing crisis.

However, there is a major difference between the two markets. Last decade, while demand was being artificially created by extremely loose lending standards, a tremendous amount of inventory was coming to the market to satisfy that demand. Below is a graph of the inventory of homes available for sale leading up to the 2008 crash.

 

Housing Market: Another Gigantic Difference Between 2008 and 2018 | MyKCM

A normal market should have approximately 6 months supply of housing inventory. As we can see, that number jumped to over 11 months supply leading up to the housing crisis. When questionable mortgage practices ceased, and demand dried up, there was a glut of inventory on the market which caused prices to drop as there was too much supply and not enough demand.

Today is radically different!

There are those who believe that low mortgage rates have created an artificial demand in the current market. They fear that if mortgage rates continue to rise, some of the current demand will dry up (which is a possibility).

However, if we look at supply again, we can see that the current supply of homes is well below the norm of 6 months.

Housing Market: Another Gigantic Difference Between 2008 and 2018 | MyKCM

Bottom Line

We will not have a glut of inventory like we did back in 2008 and home values won’t come tumbling down. Instead, if demand weakens, we will return to a normal market (approximately a 6-month supply) with historic levels of appreciation (3.6% annually).


Posted on August 21, 2018 at 9:53 am
Kara Brem | Posted in Uncategorized |

4 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Bubble

4 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Bubble | MyKCM

With home prices continuing to appreciate above historic levels, some are concerned that we may be heading for another housing ‘boom & bust.’ It is important to remember, however, that today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago.

Here are four key metrics that will explain why:

  1. Home Prices
  2. Mortgage Standards
  3. Foreclosure Rates
  4. Housing Affordability

1. HOME PRICES

There is no doubt that home prices have reached 2006 levels in many markets across the country. However, after more than a decade, home prices should be much higher based on inflation alone.

Last week, CoreLogic reported that,

“The inflation-adjusted U.S. median sale price in June 2006 was $247,110 (or $199,899 in 2006 dollars), compared with $213,400 in March 2018.” (This is the latest data available.)

2. MORTGAGE STANDARDS

Many are concerned that lending institutions are again easing standards to a level that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.

The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a monthly index which,

“…measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”

Their July Housing Credit Availability Index revealed:

“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”

3. FORECLOSURE RATES

A major cause of the housing crash last decade was the number of foreclosures that hit the market. They not only increased the supply of homes for sale but were also being sold at 20-50% discounts. Foreclosures helped drive down all home values.

Today, foreclosure numbers are lower than they were before the housing boom. Here are the number of consumers with new foreclosures according to the Federal Reserve’s most recent Household Debt and Credit Report:

  • 2003: 203,320 (earliest reported numbers)
  • 2009: 566,180 (at the valley of the crash)
  • Today: 76,480

Foreclosures today are less than 40% of what they were in 2003.

4. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

Contrary to many headlines, home affordability is better now than it was prior to the last housing boom. In the same article referenced in #1, CoreLogic revealed that in the vast majority of markets, “the inflation-adjusted, principal-and-interest mortgage payments that homebuyers have committed to this year remain much lower than their pre-crisis peaks.”

They went on to explain:

“The main reason the typical mortgage payment remains well below record levels in most of the country is that the average mortgage rate back in June 2006, when the U.S. typical mortgage payment peaked, was about 6.7 percent, compared with an average mortgage rate of about 4.4 percent in March 2018.”

The “price” of a home may be higher, but the “cost” is still below historic norms.

Bottom Line

After using these four key housing metrics to compare today to last decade, we can see that the current market is not anything like that bubble market.


Posted on August 1, 2018 at 10:43 am
Kara Brem | Posted in Uncategorized |

Why Real Estate May Be A Big Winner in the Tax Cuts and Job Act

On the surface it may look like the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is bad for real estate.  The reduction in the deductibility of mortgage interest and the combined $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions for income, sales and property, along with the elimination of moving expense deductions would make a compelling argument. But after digging through the fine print, the outcome is that real estate may actually be the big winner.

The mortgage deduction has been reduced to $750,000 dollars for new homeowners, but the deductibility of current mortgage debt up to $1 million is still protected. The only change was that technically under the old law one could also deduct $100,000 of home-equity debt. This is no longer allowed unless an equity loan is used to substantially improve the residence.

However, let’s keep in mind that these mortgage provisions are due to sunset on Dec. 31, 2025. So, don’t run out and pay down your mortgage because you won’t be able to get the deductions back. These limits are short-lived.

Let’s delve a little deeper. How did real estate come out alright?

  • The deduction for mortgage interest on second homes survived although it initially appeared to be on the chopping block.
  • The ability to rent a primary or secondary home for up to 14 days a year and not pay taxes on the income survived.
  • A new deduction for pass-through entities benefits real estate, particularly real estate investment trusts. This will enable real estate partnerships and LLCs to get a new 20% deduction.
  • Real estate agents–unlike doctors, lawyers, financial planners and professional athletes–are not considered a service industry profession and therefore are exempt from the limit in their pass-through deductions if their income is higher than $207,500 or $415,000 for a couple.
  • Real estate professionals who work more than 750 hours a year can still deduct their real estate losses from ordinary income and lower income investors can still deduct passive income, such as real estate rentals.
  • The bill doubles the Section 179 deduction for qualifying expenses, allowing business to annually deduct up to $1 million on certain types of property expenses.
  • Land and property depreciation has been retained and the alternative depreciation system period for residential property has been shortened. This is a huge win for the industry because one of the key features to investing in real estate is depreciation because under U.S. accounting rules real estate loses value, even though it tends to rise in market value.
  • Changes in the carried interest deduction–one must now hold assets for three years instead of only one–will benefit real estate funds substantially more than other types of managed funds.
  • And finally, the lucrative 1031 tax free exchange rules that were on the initial chopping block were retained. Section 1031 allows real estate investors to defer capital gains taxes if they are using the money to purchase another property.

These are just a few of the benefits that real estate has received and only scratches the surface of the plethora of real estate strategies that continue to survive. Not only should commercial real estate benefit, but residential real estate still maintains its luster.

In the end, real estate may be the big winner but so is capitalism. After all, real estate is one of the foundations of an ownership society. As my favorite economist Hernando De Soto said in his book, The Mystery of Capital, “Real estate is why capitalism triumphs in the west and fails everywhere else.”

Source: forbes.com


Posted on June 19, 2018 at 7:38 am
Kara Brem | Posted in Uncategorized |

Why Have Interest Rates Jumped to a 7-Year High?

Why Have Interest Rates Jumped to a 7-Year High? | MyKCM

Interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage have climbed from 3.95% in the first week of January up to 4.61% last week, which marks a 7-year high according to Freddie Mac. The current pace of acceleration has been fueled by many factors.

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist, had this to say:

“Healthy consumer spending and higher commodity prices spooked bond markets and led to higher mortgage rates over the past week.

Not only are buyers facing higher borrowing costs, gas prices are currently at four-year highs just as we enter the important peak home sales season.”

But what do gas prices have to do with interest rates?

Investopedia explains the relationship like this:

“The price of oil and inflation are often seen as being connected in a cause-and-effect relationship. As oil prices move up or down, inflation follows in the same direction.”

You may have noticed that filling your gas tank has become substantially more expensive in recent months. The average national gas price has climbed nearly $0.50 from the beginning of the year, leading to the highest price for Memorial Day weekend since 2014.

As rates go up, your purchasing power goes down, but don’t worry; rates are still well below the averages we’ve seen over the last four decades.

“Freddie Mac said this year’s higher rates have not yet caused much of a ripple in the strong demand levels for buying a home seen in most markets, but inflationary pressures and the prospect of rates approaching 5 percent could begin to hit the psyche of some prospective buyers.”

Buying sooner rather than later will help lock in a lower rate than waiting, as the experts believe rates will continue to climb. Even a small increase in interest rates can have a big impact on your monthly housing cost.

Bottom Line

If you are planning on buying a home this year, keep an eye on gas prices the next time you’re at the pump. If you start to feel a big jump in price, know that rates are probably on their way up, too.


Posted on May 30, 2018 at 10:26 am
Kara Brem | Posted in Uncategorized |

JUST LISTED!

If you need a 3 bedroom home but can’t bear the prices of coastal north county, head inland just 9 miles and you can have the backyard and home of your dreams…while still enjoying the beach when you’d like!

Lakeview Estates and all nearby neighborhoods are increasing in value tremendously!  Still so much equity to capture!
Call or text for a private showing  831-818-3050

MORE PROPERTY INFORMATION HERE

 

 

 

 


Posted on May 17, 2018 at 9:45 am
Kara Brem | Posted in Uncategorized |

The Impact of Interest Rate Increases


Posted on May 8, 2018 at 12:36 pm
Kara Brem | Posted in Uncategorized |

San Diego County To Study Affordable Housing Solutions

San Diego County To Study Affordable Housing Solutions

SAN DIEGO COUNTY, CA – The Board of Supervisors voted Wednesday to direct staff to investigate ways to promote the construction of homes for low- and middle-income families in unincorporated San Diego County.

They’ll focus on six areas where the county could make changes: streamlining the permitting process, correcting problematic laws and codes, rolling out incentives, updating community plans and modernizing land development codes.

The chief administrative officer will report back to the supervisors within six months on actions county government can take in those areas.

The move was met positively by representatives from the building industry, who said the process of planning, permitting and building new homes can be arduous and stymies the supply of affordable houses.

“Everybody’s been talking about the housing crisis for months, if not years,” said Matthew Adams of the Building Industry Association of San Diego. “We all know the root causes, we all know the consequences … now it’s time to solve it.”

Nearly half of people in San Diego County are what’s known as “housing-cost burdened,” which means they spend more than 30 percent of their income on rent or other housing costs.

The median price of a home in San Diego County is $550,000. In unincorporated areas, where county government has direct control, that number rises to $585,000, according to county staff.

A family earning the area’s median family income of $81,800 would need to set aside 30 percent of their income for five years in order to save for a $110,000 down payment while also paying rent at their current residence, which on average ranges between $1,800 and $2,200, according to county planner Tara Lieberman.

The cost of housing in San Diego County and lack of affordable options has prompted many people to move to Riverside County, where the median home costs $354,600. One in five San Diego region workers live outside the county. While they save money on housing, they’re left with long commutes that contribute to road congestion and pollution, county staff said.

Among the solutions county staff plan to explore are shortening the time it takes to build a house due to regulatory hurdles, increasing density bonus programs, updating some 15 community plans by 2030 and overhauling the land development codes, which were written in 1975.

Unincorporated areas are home to 492,500 of the region’s 3.3 million people and account for the vast majority of land in San Diego County.

By City News Service / Image via Shutterstock

 


Posted on April 19, 2018 at 9:06 am
Kara Brem | Posted in Uncategorized |

What Interest Rate Did Your Parents Purchase At?

Be Thankful You Don’t Have to Pay Your Parents’ Interest Rate!

Be Thankful You Don’t Have to Pay Your Parents’ Interest Rate! | MyKCM

Interest rates hovered around 4% for the majority of 2017, which gave many buyers relief from rising home prices and helped with affordability. In the first quarter of 2018, rates have increased from 3.95% up to 4.45% and experts predict that rates will increase even more by the end of the year.

The rate you secure greatly impacts your monthly mortgage payment and the amount you will ultimately pay for your home. Don’t let the prediction that rates will increase stop you from purchasing your dream home this year.

Let’s take a look at a historical view of interest rates over the last 45 years.

 

Be Thankful You Don’t Have to Pay Your Parents’ Interest Rate! | MyKCM

Bottom Line

Be thankful that you can still get a better interest rate than your older brother or sister did ten years ago, a lower rate than your parents did twenty years ago, and a better rate than your grandparents did forty years ago.

The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.

Posted on March 28, 2018 at 10:44 am
Kara Brem | Posted in Uncategorized |

Should I Wait or Should I Buy Now?

Are you stuck in the San Diego renter’s trap?  Is it time for you to consider buying?  Let’s explore that question and talk about points to consider along with steps to take that will ensure longterm comfort.

 

By Kara Brem

March 7, 2018


Here’s the scenario…you are living and leasing in San Diego County and you’re frustrated with rising rents as well as lack of longterm housing stability.   The idea of what you may be paying for rent five years from now is a daunting thought.  You’ve considered purchasing a home for one or more of the following reasons:

  1. To secure a consistent monthly housing payment for the next 30 years, unlike renting 
  2. For the peace of mind that you have a roof, YOUR roof, over your head.  Your landlord can’t increase your rent or sell the place your living in and leave you searching for another home
  3.  If you wait you could be priced out and may never be able to own a home of your own in San Diego
  4. Your buying power will decrease over time with rising interests rates
  5. As an investment…to build real equity overtime that can someday be handed off to your children 

All of these are valid reasons to consider.  In fact, these are the thoughts that have been going through my mind for the last year or two.   So this blog piece is quite personal.  Tackling the question “to buy or not to buy” has become a research obsession of mine.   You’re not alone.  So let’s dive in together and figure this out.

Let’s Talk About Buying Power

At the forefront of these concerns are interest rates.  Although rising, we are still seeing historically low rates.  Rates are expected to rise over the next 2-3 years and are forecasted by Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, to increase 2.9% by 2020 (this number is very in sync with most economists and housing market specialists).  

 

 

For every 1% increase in interest rates, your buying power goes down 10%.  That means if today you can afford a home that is 600k, in two to three years just the increase in interest rates will decrease your buying power by $60,000… in addition to your monthly payment increasing.

To Buy or Not to Buy?  That is the Question.

But, Kara, what if I buy now and it ends up being at the peak of the market?  Maybe I should wait until the market crashes and I can buy at the bottom.  These are valid questions and concerns.  I don’t have a crystal ball…sure wish I did for all of us…myself included.  I am constantly researching and listening to all economists out there and looking at key predictors. 

Here’s what I’ve heard and seen:

  • Home values in SD will continue to rise at a more sustainable rate…very unlike the double digit increases we have seen in some areas over the last couple of years
  • 99% of Real Estate analysts predict homes will continue to appreciate, especially in markets like San Diego County
  • Interest rates will go up (2% in the next few years as discussed above)
  • The rental market will become more competitive and expensive (it will, if not already, absorb 40% of your income)
  • And yes, we will have a recession.  It is inevitable.  Every 10 or so years it happens.  However, it will NOT be what it was in 2007 for many reasons, including, stricter lending policies.  It will look more like the 1990 recession…very shallow and skinny

This Gets Personal

In this market it’s all about your personal situation and intent.  Below are a few points to consider. 

If your intention is to hang onto the home you purchase indefinitely, or let’s say at least seven years, buy now.  If you are financing most of the purchase with a mo

rtgage, this will allow you to take advantage of lower interest rates before they rise, thus keeping your longterm monthly payments low and your buying power high.  When considering renting longterm vs. buying to hold longterm, future home price changes are less important than your fixed monthly mortgage payment.  Imagine what you might be paying in rent 10 years from now!  

Home prices may decline at some point, but they may not. Either way, you will have locked in a reasonable monthly payment for the long haul, and this is likely more important than changes in the market price of a house you have no intent to sell any time soon.  

However, if you are not sure how long you will live in this area and may have to sell in the next couple of years, that’s another story.  This may result in low potential gains as you may be selling at a loss IF home prices do decline.  The benefits of low monthly payments in the short term do not outweigh the risk of the potential loss.  Potential shorter-term buyers should proceed with caution. 

Why Not Explore Your Options?

So, all that being said, your plan is to buy and hold or at least look into what it would look like financially to do so.  What’s the first step?  Connect with a loan officer. I have two preferred lenders I can connect you with that are no pressure, with accurate and detailed information. 

Find out what it would take to buy in the next 3- 6 months, explore what you would be qualified for and what that monthly mortgage payment would look like.   If you don’t think you’re ready to buy that soon, still chat with them and myself.  There are things we can do to get your ducks in a row…from reviewing your credit to setting you up on my MLS linked website so you can become educated on the market in neighborhoods you are interested in.

Hurdles and Roadblocks

Don’t think you have enough down payment?  Long are the days that it takes 20% down to purchase a home.  There are loans available for as little as 3% down and if you’re a veteran it’s even lower.  Credit not so good?  FHA loans allow those interested in purchasing to do just that with a mortgage that’s insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA).  There are options out there and it doesn’t take long to get answers from Dan.

Or perhaps you chat with Dan and he brings to your attention that you have some credit issues (oh my!) to deal with.  You may already be aware and are hoping those negative marks would just miraculously disappear?  Really, truly you are not alone. 

But by all means, don’t wait!  Get right on it and work with someone that can quickly (and affordably) remedy these credit thorns in your side.  Bad credit can cost you when financing a home so first step is to get it as clean and clear as possible.  My clients use Nicole Soares with bSquared Credit and are thrilled with the results.  She and her team offer a free consultation… so there you have it…no more excuses.  

Seek Comfort and Longterm Stability 

Now here’s a point that I always drive home with my clients…make sure you are comfortable with the total monthly payment.  Often times we get excited to be approved at say, 700k, but perhaps the monthly payment is really NOT that realistic for you financially.  I don’t ever want my clients to be house poor and stressed.

Work with your lender and calculate the monthly payment once you know what you are qualified for (taking everything into consideration…taxes, HOA fees, private mortgage insurance if you are not putting 20% down or if you have an FHA loan).  Or even better, if you know what the max monthly payment is that you are comfortable with, start there with a lender.  Work backwards.   Let the monthly payment drive your maximum purchase price. 

Here is a great monthly mortgage payment website with calculators that result in a REAL number.  (Reach out to me or your lender if you have questions.)  My goal is to get my clients into a home at a price that they are comfortable, content and happy with over many, many years.  Not the one that is the most expensive that results in the highest commission.

The Search is ON

Once you identify a maximum purchase price and a monthly mortgage you are comfortable with,  I can then take the qualifying numbers and start sending you properties that fit your parameters and maximum purchase amount.  It is time to check out properties and find your new home.  This is the fun part!  It can take awhile to find the right place.  I am patient and there for you every step of the way.  I will do everything in my power to make purchasing a home as enjoyable and stress-free as possible.

Let’s work together to find out if now is the right time for you to buy and if so, what does that realistically look like for you.  Every situation is different and I am here to help.

**To get more information and start your home search today, visit my buyers site here.**

Kara Brem

Your Realtor® with competence, integrity, PATIENCE, and heart

Windermere Home & Estates

www.karabrem.com

831-818-3050

kara@bremproperties.com

BRE# 01939667

 

Other articles you may be interested in:

https://www.windermere.com/blogs/windermere/authors/matthew-gardner-chief-economist-windermere-real-estate/posts/southern-california-real-estate-market-update–8

https://www.pcasd.com/content/thoughts-san-diego-housing-market

https://www.multihousingnews.com/post/socal-remains-a-landlords-market/?platform=hootsuite


Posted on March 9, 2018 at 6:56 am
Kara Brem | Posted in Real estate, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , ,