Real Estate • May 26, 2021

Is the Housing Market Going to Crash in 2021?

by Kara Brem

The housing market is red-hot right now, but if you’re waiting for a massive market correction, don’t count on it. Real estate industry experts weigh in with predictions for home buying and selling trends.

By Mia Taylor

May 10, 2021

It’s hardly a secret that real estate prices across the country have been skyrocketing. Recent data from Redfin, a real estate brokerage, shows that median home prices are up 20% year-over-year. At the same time, many properties are under contract for purchase within a mere one to two weeks of hitting the market and it’s not unusual for prospective buyers to offer 10% or even 20% over the asking price. In fact, Redfin reports that 46% of homes sold for more than their list price. As if that’s not enough, many buyers are paying cash for homes. Yes, cash. You read that right.

“We are in a record-breaking housing market with asking prices at an all-time high ($357,200), median sale prices at an all-time high ($347,500), the share of homes selling over list price at an all-time high (46%), and homes selling faster than ever before: 58% under contract within two weeks of listing and 46% within one week of listing,” says Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “Ask just about any real estate agent, and they’ll tell you they’ve never seen a market this hot.”

All of which has left many watchers and potential buyers scratching their heads and wondering if we’re due for a market crash similar to the housing market burst that brought on the Great Recession in 2007. The short answer to that question? No, a similar crash is not likely. And there are many reasons for that.

Here’s a closer look at some of the most obvious factors contributing to widespread confidence that there will be no real estate market crash in 2021 (or anytime soon), as well as insight into what real estate and industry experts do see happening in the market over the coming months—and what it all means for potential buyers.

Factors Contributing to the Overheated Housing Market

First, it’s important to understand that there are numerous elements driving the current housing market and they differ from what was taking place before the Great Recession.

“Those of us who experienced the housing crash really don’t want to go back to the days of underwater sellers and houses sitting on the market for months at a time without a single offer. The good news is that this isn’t 2008 and 2021 has a few things going for it that the sub-prime market could only dream about back when ‘short sale’ became a household word,” explains Debra Remington, managing broker for Texas-based Remington Team Realty.

1. Lack of Inventory

One of the biggest contributors to the current red-hot market and sky-high prices is a dearth of inventory. This is an explanation you’ll hear from experts far and wide.

The shortage of inventory is caused by a few factors, including owners not wanting strangers (potential buyers) traipsing through their living quarters amid a global pandemic, thus far fewer homes being put on the market for sale.

The second issue is the pace of new construction, which has been slower than normal. Years of sluggish new construction in the United States has finally caught up, and many builders went under during the Great Recession.

“Not enough people are listing their homes for sale, and new construction isn’t keeping pace with demand,” says Fairweather. “America built fewer homes in the 2010s compared to any decade going back to the 1960s.”

In other words, one of the primary drivers behind the current overheated housing market is very different than what set the stage for the 2007 crash. Today’s boom is not due to loose lending practices flooding the market with unqualified buyers.

“What caused the market to crash was related to real estate and the lending practices that were happening. People were buying homes that shouldn’t have been buying homes,” says Dave Nations, founder of The Nations Network. “They couldn’t actually afford the house they were buying but the loan product allowed them to at least get in the house short-term.”

Experts predict that the current record low inventory will keep demand at record levels. But in the run-up to the Great Recession, the market was characterized by limited demand and too much inventory, says Remington.

2. Historic Low Interest Rates

Historic low interest rates are also contributing to current conditions, encouraging a steady stream of buyers to enter the market. The Federal Reserve repeatedly lowered interest rates amid the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. And it doesn’t appear that those rock-bottom rates will disappear anytime soon, yet another reason buyer demand is likely to remain strong and thus no market crash.

“The Federal Reserve has no immediate plans to change interest rate strategy. If they stay low, buyers will continue to purchase as even if they are paying a premium, they are locking in really great rates for the next 30 years,” says San Francisco-based realtor Julie Upton.

3. Millennial Buyers Entering the Market

Millennials are also entering the market like never before, which is playing a role in market conditions. According to the 2021 NAR Buyer and Seller Report, the median age of first-time homebuyers is now 33, which is coincidentally also the average age Millennials turn this year.

“Millennials buying homes have already significantly impacted the market,” says Grace Keister of California-based First Team Real Estate. “At First Team, we’ve seen a big uptick in Millennial clients. I’ve personally referred two friends in the last year to buyers’ agents; [I] know about two other friends who are casually searching, and another couple who just purchased after six months of searching. We also had a new agent who closed 15 transactions in her first year, all buyers that she met through her TikTok presence.”

4. Lending Practices Tightened

Perhaps one of the most meaningful indicators that a real estate market crash is unlikely in 2021 can be found in today’s lending environment, which is far stricter than it was prior to 2007. As Upton likes to say, the days of NINJA loans (no income, no job, no assets) are long gone.

“These risky loans were common prior to the market crash,” explains Upton. “These days, lenders are very strict when qualifying buyers, and changes to appraisal laws have also tightened up the appraisal practices. Taken together, there are fewer risky mortgages in the financial system.”

Why a 2021 Market Crash is Unlikely

Market crashes generally take place when there’s a serious breakdown somewhere in the system. But as outlined by so many experts, that’s not currently a problem.

“Absent a catastrophe in the financial markets or in the political arena, we fully expect demand for housing to remain strong,” says Michael Shapot, a New York based real estate broker with The Shapot Team.

Upton supports Shapot’s assessment. “While anything can happen that might impact the housing market, there are no key indicators right now to suggest that there will be a crash in 2021,” she says.

Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride says that while the recent pace of home price appreciation isn’t sustainable over the long-run, that doesn’t mean prices are at risk of some sort of sharp drop or correction. It would likely take a return to the questionable lending practices of the early 2000s to trigger such a collapse.

“If lending standards loosen and we go back to the wild, wild west days of 2004 to 2006, then that is a whole different animal,” McBride explains. “If we start to see prices being bid up by the artificial buying power of loose lending standards, that’s when we worry about a crash.”

What Is Likely to Happen with the Housing Market?

As the vaccine rate of Americans continues to increase and more homeowners feel comfortable listing properties and having strangers walk through their homes, market conditions will likely become more balanced. There will be more supply and prices should adjust somewhat.

“The gradual increase in inventory will begin to slowly alleviate the demand created by the inventory shortage,” says Colby Hager of Texas-based Capstone Homebuyers. “This rather gradual return to normal will create a larger pool of options for buyers which will lead to more days on market for houses. The bidding wars seen today that are a big factor of price increases will begin to die out because buyers will have more housing options to choose from and there will be a drop in competition between buyers for any one house.”

Indeed, Zillow data supports the projections of Hager and other industry professionals; while the early weeks of 2021 were marked by a scarcity of new home listings as sellers stayed on the sidelines in the face of an uptick in COVID-19 cases, data indicates sellers are starting to come back. New listings nationwide rose by 30% in the four weeks between late February and late March.

What Does It All Mean?

So what do all of these insights and predictions add up to? Is it good news for homebuyers? In many ways, that depends on your buying timeline.

“Homebuyers who have the ability to wait for the bidding wars to disappear, prices to stagnate, and listings to stay on the market longer will get more house for their dollar,” says Hager. “Homebuyers who can afford to sit on the sidelines during this overheated housing market will definitely be rewarded.”

And if you’re in the market to buy right now and can’t wait it out? “Remain patient. Exercise caution. Don’t ever pay more than you can comfortably afford,” says Shapot. “Consider other options, perhaps in different neighborhoods or off market properties that haven’t yet been listed. Look at properties that have been on the market a while and appear overpriced; there is less likelihood that there will be a bidding war and perhaps the homeowner will be sensible and consider reasonable offers.”

Real Estate • May 18, 2021

Americans See Real Estate as a Better Investment Than Stocks or Gold

by Kara Brem

Last month, in a post on the Liberty Street Economics blog, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York noted that Americans believe buying a home is definitely or probably a better investment than buying stocks. Last week, a Gallup Poll reaffirmed those findings.

In an article on the current real estate market, Gallup reports:

“Gallup usually finds that Americans regard real estate as the best long-term investment among several options — seeing it as superior to stocks, gold, savings accounts and bonds. This year, 41% choose real estate as the best investment, up from 35% a year ago, with stocks a distant second.”

Here’s the breakdown:The article goes on to say:

“The 41% choosing real estate is the highest selecting any of the five investment options in the 11 years Gallup has asked this question.”

Is real estate really a secure investment right now?

Some question American confidence in real estate as a good long-term investment right now. They fear that the build-up in home values may be mirroring what happened right before the housing crash a little more than a decade ago. However, according to Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, the current real estate market is strong and sustainable.

As Morgan Stanley explains to their clients in a recent Thoughts on the Market podcast:

“Unlike 15 years ago, the euphoria in today’s home prices comes down to the simple logic of supply and demand. And we at Morgan Stanley conclude that this time the sector is on a sustainably, sturdy foundation . . . . This robust demand and highly challenged supply, along with tight mortgage lending standards, may continue to bode well for home prices. Higher interest rates and post pandemic moves could likely slow the pace of appreciation, but the upward trajectory remains very much on course.”

Real Estate • May 4, 2021

4 Big Incentives for Homeowners to Sell Now

by Kara Brem

The housing market keeps sailing along. The only headwind that could take it off course is the lack of inventory for sale. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that there were 410,000 fewer single-family homes for sale this March than in March of 2020. The key to continued success in the residential housing market is for more listings to come on the market. However, many homeowners are concerned that selling their homes could be challenging for several reasons.

Recently, Homes.com released the findings of a survey that identified these concerns, as well as what it will take for homeowners to feel comfortable selling their houses. Here are the four major homeowner concerns and a quick explanation of what’s actually happening in the housing market today.

1. Homeowners don’t know if they’ll be able to secure their next home before selling.

In negotiations, leverage is the power that one side may have to influence the other side while moving closer to their negotiating position. A party’s leverage is based on the ability to award benefits or eliminate costs on the other side.

In today’s market, buyers have compelling reasons to purchase a home now:

To own a home of their own
To buy before prices continue to appreciate
To secure a mortgage at a historically low rate, while they last

These buyer needs give the seller tremendous leverage. Most already realize this leverage enables the homeowner to sell at a good price. However, this leverage may also be used to negotiate time to find their next home. The homeowner could sell their home to the buyer at today’s price, which will enable the purchaser to take advantage of current mortgage rates. In return, the buyer might lease the house back to the seller for a pre-determined length of time while the seller finds a new home or has one built.

This gives the buyer what they want while also giving the seller what they need. It’s a true win-win negotiation.

2. Homeowners don’t know if their current home will sell for the asking price or top market price.

This is the perfect time to maximize profits while selling a house. NAR just released a studyshowing that bidding wars are at an all-time high. The study reveals that when comparing the first quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, the number of offers on homes for sale doubled from an average of 2.4 to 4.8 offers.

Whenever there’s a bidding war, the price of the item for sale escalates. Bloomberg recently reported:

“For the first time ever, the average U.S. home is selling for above its list price.”

If a seller is looking for a top-dollar sale, there’s no better time to sell than right now.

3. Homeowners don’t know if they will get an offer without their home requiring work or updates.

Again, leverage is the greatest strength a seller has in this market. Due to the lack of homes for sale, many buyers are more willing to take on home improvement projects themselves in order to get the home they’re after.

A recent post on whether or not to renovate before selling notes:

“It may be wise to let future homeowners remodel the bathroom or the kitchen to make design decisions that are best for their specific taste and lifestyle. As a seller, your dollars and time might be better spent working on small cosmetic updates, like refreshing some paint and power washing the exterior. Instead of over-investing in your home with upgrades that the buyers may change anyway, work with a real estate professional to determine the key projects that will maximize your listing, without overdoing it.”

If a seller is worried about doing work or updates on their home, they must realize that today’s historically low inventory likely renders these projects less critical to the sale of the house.

4. Homeowners don’t know if they can have a quick closing process.

When speed is important, there are two points sellers should look at:

The time it takes to find a buyer for the home
The time it takes to close the transaction

In the latest Existing Home Sales Report, NAR explains:

“Properties typically remained on the market for 18 days in March, down from 20 days in February and from 29 days in March 2020. Eighty-three percent of the homes sold in March 2021 were on the market for less than a month.”

Eighteen days is fast, and it’s a new record. Here are the days the average house is on the market in each state:Regarding the time it will take to close the transaction, all-cash sales accounted for 23% of all home purchase transactions in March. All-cash sales can usually be closed in thirty days.

If a mortgage is necessary, the most recent Origination Insight Report from Ellie Mae shows:

“Time to close all loans decreased in March. The average time to close a purchase fell to 51 days, down from 53 the month prior.”

If you’re looking for a quick closing process, there’s never been a market in which the two-step process (finding a buyer and closing the deal) has taken less time.

Bottom Line

Selling your house can be daunting, especially in a fast-paced market. However, the fact that we’re in such a strong sellers’ market clearly eliminates many common concerns. Let’s connect today so you can learn more about the opportunities for homeowners who are ready to sell.

Real Estate • April 13, 2021

Homeownership Is Full of Financial Benefits

by Kara Brem

A Fannie Mae survey recently revealed some of the most highly-rated benefits of homeownership, which continue to be key drivers in today’s power-packed housing market. Here are the top four financial benefits of owning a home according to consumer respondents:

88% – a better chance of saving for retirement
87% – the best investment plan
85% – the chance to be better off financially
85% – the chance to build up wealth

Additional financial advantages of homeownership included in the survey are having the best overall tax situation and being able to live within your budget.

Does homeownership actually give you a better chance to build wealth?

No one can question a person’s unique feelings about the importance of homeownership. However, it’s fair to ask if the numbers justify homeownership as a financial asset.

Last fall, the Federal Reserve released the Survey of Consumer Finances, a report done every three years, with the latest edition covering through 2019. Their findings confirmed that homeownership is a clear financial benefit. The survey found that homeowners have forty times higher net worth than renters ($255,000 for homeowners compared to $6,300 for renters).

The difference in net worth between homeowners and renters has continued to grow. Here’s a graph showing the results of the last four Fed surveys:The above graph only includes data through 2019, but according to CoreLogic, the equity held by homeowners grew by $26,300 over the last twelve months alone. That means the gap between the net worth of homeowners and renters has probably widened even further over the last year.

Some might argue the difference in net worth may be due to homeowners normally having larger incomes than renters and therefore the ability to save more money. However, a study by First American shows homeowners have greater net worth than renters regardless of their income level. Here are the findings:Others may think homeowners are older and that’s why they have a greater net worth. However, a Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University report on homeowners and renters over the age of 65 reveals:

“The ability to build equity puts homeowners far ahead of renters in terms of household wealth…the median owner age 65 and over had home equity of $143,500 and net wealth of $319,200. By comparison, the net wealth of the same-age renter was just $6,700.”

Homeowners 65 and older have 47.6 times greater net worth than renters.

Bottom Line

The idea of homeownership as a direct way to build your net worth has met the test of time. Let’s connect if you’re ready to take steps toward becoming a homeowner.

Real Estate • April 5, 2021

Buyer Competition Is Good News for Sellers

by Kara Brem

Some Highlights

With so many buyers looking for homes to purchase and so few houses available today, there’s a substantial increase in bidding wars, and homes are selling fast.
According to the latest Realtors Confidence Index Survey from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), on average, houses are receiving over four offers from buyers and they’re selling in less than three weeks.
If you’re ready to make a move, let’s connect today so you can sell your house while the market is in your favor.

Real Estate • March 30, 2021

Buyer & Seller Perks in Today’s Housing Market

by Kara Brem

The Biggest Perk for Buyers: Low Mortgage Rates

Today’s most compelling buyer incentive is low mortgage interest rates. The 30-year fixed-rate is now averaging just over 3%. While that’s slightly higher than the record-lows from 2020 and earlier this year, it’s still way lower than historic norms, making purchasing a home an ongoing perk for hopeful buyers (See graph below):This is a huge advantage for buyers and helps to make owning a home attainable for more households – and there’s good reason to strive for homeownership. The latest Homeowner Equity Report from CoreLogic shows how homeowners saw major gains in their net worth last year, all thanks to owning a home. Frank Martell, President and CEO of CoreLogic, explains:

“Positive factors like record-low interest rates and a booming housing market encouraged many families to enter homeownership. This growing bank of personal wealth that homeownership affords was noticed by many but in particular for first-time buyers who want a piece of the cake. As a result, we may see more of those currently renting start to enter the market in the near future.”

Low mortgage rates are a plus for buyers right now, but experts forecast we’ll see them continue to rise as the year goes on. If you’re ready to purchase a home, it’s wise to get started on the process soon so you can secure today’s comparatively low rate.

The Biggest Perk for Sellers: Low Inventory

Today, there are simply not enough houses on the market for the number of buyers looking to purchase them, and it’s creating a serious sellers’ market. According to Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com:

“Total active inventory continues to decline, dropping 50 percent. With buyers active in the market and sellers still slow to put homes up for sale, homes are selling quickly and the total number actively available for sale at any point in time continues to decline.” (See map below):

The lack of houses for sale continues to challenge the market, and with low mortgage rates fueling buyer demand, homes are hard for buyers to find today. According to the latest Realtors Confidence Index Survey by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the average house is now receiving 4.1 offers and is on the market for only 20 days.

Buyers are clearly eager to purchase, and because of the shortage of inventory available, they’re often entering bidding wars. This is one of the factors keeping home prices strong and giving sellers leverage in the negotiation process.

Homeowners who are in a position to sell shouldn’t wait to make their move. There’s a light at the end of the tunnel for today’s inventory shortage, so listing this spring will get your house on the market when conditions are most favorable. With low inventory and high buyer demand, homeowners can potentially earn a greater profit on their houses and sell them quickly in the fast-paced spring market.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, there are major perks available in today’s housing market. Let’s connect today to discuss how these favorable conditions play to your advantage in our local area.

Real Estate • March 11, 2021

Will the Housing Market Bloom This Spring?

by Kara Brem

Spring is almost here, and many are wondering what it will bring for the housing market. Even though the pandemic continues on, it’s certain to be very different from the spring we experienced at this time last year. Here’s what a few industry experts have to say about the housing market and how it will bloom this season.

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, realtor.com:

“Despite early weakness, we expect to see new listings grow in March and April as they traditionally do heading into spring, and last year’s extraordinarily low new listings comparison point will mean year over year gains. One other potential bright spot for would-be homebuyers, new construction, which has risen at a year over year pace of 20% or more for the last few months, will provide additional for-sale inventory relief.”

Ali Wolf, Chief Economist, Zonda:

“Some people will feel comfortable listing their home during the first half of 2021. Others will want to wait until the vaccines are widely distributed. This suggests more inventory will be for sale in late 2021 and into the spring selling season in 2022.”

Freddie Mac:

“Since reaching a low point in January, mortgage rates have risen by more than 30 basis points… However, the rise in mortgage rates over the next couple of months is likely to be more muted in comparison to the last few weeks, and we expect a strong spring sales season.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American:

“As the housing market heads into the spring home buying season, the ongoing supply and demand imbalance all but assures more house price growth…Many find it hard to believe, but housing is actually undervalued in most markets and the gap between house-buying power and sale prices indicates there’s room for further house price growth in the months to come.”

Bottom Line

The experts are very optimistic about the housing market right now. If you pressed pause on your real estate plans over the winter, let’s chat to determine how you can re-engage in the homebuying process this spring.

« 6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time

The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.

Real Estate • March 3, 2021

Home Prices: What Happened in 2020? What Will Happen This Year?

by Kara Brem

The real estate market was on fire during the second half of 2020. Buyer demand was way up, and the supply of homes available for sale hit record lows. The price of anything is determined by the supply and demand ratio, so home prices skyrocketed last year. Dr. Lynn Fisher, Deputy Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Division of Research and Statistics, explains:

“House prices nationwide recorded the largest annual and quarterly increase in the history of the FHFA Home Price Index. Low mortgage rates, pent up demand from homebuyers, and a limited housing supply propelled every region of the country to experience faster growth in 2020 compared to a year ago despite the pandemic.”

Here are the year-end home price appreciation numbers from the FHFA and two other prominent pricing indexes:

Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index Report: 10.8%
CoreLogic Home Price Insights: 9.2%
S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: 10.4%

The past year was truly a remarkable time for homeowners as prices appreciated substantially. Lawrence Yun, Senior Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), reveals:

“A typical homeowner in 2020, just by being a homeowner, would have accumulated around $24,000 in housing wealth.”

What will happen with home prices this year?

Many experts believe buyer demand will soften somewhat as mortgage rates are poised to bump up slightly. Some also believe the inventory challenge will ease as more listings come to market this year.

Based on this, most forecasters anticipate we’ll see strong appreciation in 2021 – but not as strong as last year. Here are seven prominent groups and their projections:

Bottom Line

Home price appreciation will be strong this year, but it won’t reach the historic levels of 2020. Let’s connect if you’d like to find out what your house is currently worth in our local market.

Real Estate • February 2, 2021

Want to Build Wealth? Buy a Home This Year

by Kara Brem

Every year, households across the country make the decision to rent for another year or take the leap into homeownership. They look at their earnings and savings and then decide what makes the most financial sense. That equation will most likely take into consideration monthly housing costs, tax advantages, and other incremental expenses. Using these measurements, recent studies show that it’s still more affordable to own than rent in most of the country.

There is, however, another financial advantage to owning a home that’s often forgotten in the analysis – the wealth built through equity when you own a home.

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist for First American, discusses this point in a recent blog post. She explains:

Once you include the equity benefit of price appreciation, owning made more financial sense than renting in 48 out of the 50 top markets, with the only exceptions being San Francisco and San Jose, Calif.

What has this equity piece meant to homeowners in the past?

ATTOM Data Solutions, the curator of one of the nation’s premier property databases, just analyzed the typical home-price gain owners nationwide enjoyed when they sold their homes. Here’s a breakdown of their findings:The typical gain in the sale of the home (equity) has increased significantly over the last five years.

CoreLogic, another property data curator, also weighed in on the subject. According to their latest Homeowner Equity Insights Report, the average homeowner gained $17,000 in equity in just the last year alone.

What does the future look like for homeowners when it comes to equity?

Here are the seven major home price appreciation forecasts for 2021:The National Association of Realtors (NAR) just reported that today, the median-priced home in the country sells for $309,800. If homes appreciate by 5% this year (the average of the forecasts), the homeowner will increase their wealth by $15,490 in 2021 through increased equity.

Bottom Line

As you make your plans for the coming year, be sure to consider the equity benefits of home price appreciation as you weigh the financial advantages of buying over renting. When you do, you may find this is the perfect time to jump into homeownership.

Real Estate • February 1, 2021

Q4 2020 Southern California Real Estate Market Update

by Kara Brem

Q4 2020 Southern California Real Estate Market Update
by Matthew Gardner

The following analysis of the Southern California real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Last summer’s recovery in the regional employment market that followed losses due to COVID-19 has tapered off because of the rapid increase in new infections. Although the region has recovered 1.25 million of the jobs that were lost, total employment is still down 763,000 jobs from the peak last February. With the slowdown in job growth and additional job losses in November, the current unemployment rate is 8.8%. For perspective, this is down from 12.3% at the end of the third quarter, but still significantly higher than the 4% rate last February.

The latest data available (for November) showed the lowest unemployment rates were in Orange County (6.4%) and San Diego County (6.6%). The highest rate was, unsurprisingly, in Los Angeles County, where it was 10.6%. I suggested in the third quarter Gardner Report that the pace of job growth was going to slow, and that proved accurate. Though I expect to see jobs return this year, most of the improvement will occur in the second half of the year when, hopefully, a vaccine is freely available.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HOME SALES
❱ Regardless of the slow economic recovery, the housing market continues to perform well, with 50,114 homes selling in the final quarter of 2020. This is an increase of 21.9% year-over-year.

❱ Pending home sales (an indicator of future closings) were 21.3% lower than in the third quarter, but I attribute this to seasonality and inventory constraints.

❱ Fourth quarter sales rose significantly in all counties relative to a year ago, with very impressive gains in Orange and Riverside counties. That said, all markets saw the number of home sales increase by double digits.

❱ There was an average of only 19,203 homes for sale in the final quarter of the year. This is 35% lower than a year ago and 17.3% lower than in the third quarter of the year.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various Southern California counties.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HOME PRICES
A map showing the real estate market price appreciation in various Southern California counties.

A map showing the real estate market price appreciation in various Southern California counties.

❱ Year-over-year, the average home price in the region was $831,880. This was 13.4% higher than a year ago and 2.4% higher than in the third quarter of 2020.

❱ Mortgage rates have remained at historic lows, which has allowed prices to rise at well-above-average rates. Given that home prices have been rising at a far faster pace than incomes, affordability concerns continue to grow.

❱ The region saw double-digit price growth across all counties contained in this report, with further significant increases in the relatively affordable Riverside County.

❱ Mortgage rates appear to have reached a floor and are unlikely to drop much further. Given that I do not expect to see significant income growth this year, it is likely that the pace of home-price appreciation will start to slow.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Southern California.

DAYS ON MARKET
❱ In the final quarter of the year, the average time it took to sell a home in the region was 27 days, which is 19 fewer days than a year ago, and 6 fewer than in the third quarter of 2020.

❱ All markets contained in this report saw the time it took to sell a home drop compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.

❱ Homes in San Diego County continue to sell at a faster rate than other markets in the region. In the fourth quarter, it took an average of only 19 days to sell a home there. This is 12 fewer days than it took a year ago.

❱ The decline in market time is due to limited inventory levels and significant demand.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various Southern California counties.

CONCLUSIONS

A speedometer graph indicating a seller’s market in Southern California.

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Southern California.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Home sales and prices are significantly higher, and demand for housing is very much in place. Naturally, this favors home sellers who are still in control of the market. I do expect to see some improvement in listing activity this year, which, in concert with modestly rising interest rates, will likely start to take some of the steam out of the market. However, any moderation in the market has yet to appear.

Even given the possible headwinds mentioned above, I am moving the needle a little more in favor of sellers as solid demand is still in place.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner – Chief Economist Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.