Uncategorized • December 5, 2018

Proof It’s NOT 2008 All Over Again

by Kara Brem

Further Proof It’s NOT 2008 All Over Again | MyKCM

Home sales numbers are leveling off, the rate of price appreciation has slowed to more historically normal averages, and inventory is finally increasing. We are headed into a more normal housing market.

However, some are seeing these adjustments as red flags and are suggesting that we are headed back to the same challenges we experienced in 2008. Today, let’s look at one set of statistics that prove the current market is nothing like the one that preceded the housing crash last decade.

The previous bubble was partially caused by unhealthy levels of mortgage debt. New purchasers were putting down the minimum down payment, resulting in them having little if any equity in their homes.

Existing homeowners were using their homes as ATMs by refinancing and swapping their equity for cash. When prices started to fall, many homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation (where their mortgage was higher than the value of their home) so they walked away which caused prices to fall even further. When this happened, even more homeowners found themselves in negative equity situations which caused them to walk away as well, and so a vicious cycle formed.

Today, the equity situation is totally different. According to a new report from ATTOM Data Solutions more than 1-in-4 homes with a mortgage have at least 50% equity. The report explains:

“…nearly 14.5 million U.S. properties were equity rich — where the combined estimated amount of loans secured by the property was 50 percent or less of the property’s estimated market value…The 14.5 million equity rich properties in Q3 2018 represented 25.7 percent of all properties with a mortgage.”

In addition, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, 30.3% of homes in the country have no mortgage on them.

Almost 50% of all homes have at least 50% equity.

If we take both numbers, the 30.3% of all homes without a mortgage and the 17.9% with at least 50% equity (25.7% of the 69.3% of homes with a mortgage), we realize that 48.2% of all homes in the country have at least 50% equity.

Bottom Line

Unlike 2008, almost half of the homeowners in the country are sitting on massive amounts of home equity. They will not be walking away from their homes if the housing market begins to soften.

Real Estate • November 15, 2018

75% of Renters Have Been Misinformed

by Kara Brem

75% of Renters Have Been Misinformed | MyKCM

Recently, multiple headlines have been written asserting that homeownership is less affordable today than at any other time in the last decade. Though the headlines are accurate, they lack context and lead too many Americans to believe that they can’t partake in a major part of the American Dream – owning a home.

In 2008, the housing market crashed and home values fell by as much as 60% in certain markets. This was the major trigger to the Great Recession we experienced from 2008 to 2010. To come back from that recession, mortgage interest rates were pushed down to levels that were never seen before.

For the last ten years, you could purchase a home at a dramatically discounted price and attain a mortgage at a historically low mortgage rate.

Affordability skyrocketed.

Now that home values have returned to where they should be, and mortgage rates are beginning to increase, it is less affordable to own a home than it was over the last ten years.

However, what is not being reported is that it is MORE AFFORDABLE to own a home today than at any other time since 1985 (when data was first collected on this point).

If you take out the years after the crash, affordability today is greater than it has been at almost any time in American history.

This has not been adequately reported which has led to many Americans believing that they cannot currently afford a home.

As an example, the latest edition of Freddie Mac’s Research: Profile of Today’s Renterreveals that 75% of renters now believe it is more affordable to rent than to own their own homes. This percentage is the highest ever recorded. The challenge is that this belief is incorrect. Study after study has proven that in today’s market, it is less expensive to own a home than it is to rent a home in the United States.

Thankfully, some are starting to see this situation and accurately report on it. The National Association of Realtors, in their 2019 Housing Forecast, mentions this concern:

“While the U.S. is experiencing historically normal levels of affordability, potential buyers may be staying out of the market because of perceived problems with affordability.”

Bottom Line

If you are one of the many renters who would like to own their own homes, let’s get together to find out if homeownership is affordable for you right now.

Uncategorized • October 24, 2018

Still Think You Need 15-20% Down to Buy a Home? Think Again!

by Kara Brem

Still Think You Need 15-20% Down to Buy a Home? Think Again! | MyKCM

According to a new study from Urban Institute, there are over 19 million millennials in 31 cities who are not only ready and willing to become homeowners, but are able to as well!

Now that the largest generation since baby boomers has aged into prime homebuying age, there will no doubt be an uptick in the national homeownership rate. The study from Urban Institute revealed that nearly a quarter of this generation has the credit and income needed to purchase a home.

Surprisingly, the largest share of mortgage-ready millennials lives in expensive coastal cities. These cities often attract highly skilled workers who demand higher salaries for their expertise.

So, what’s holding these mortgage-ready millennials back from buying?

Myths About Down Payment Requirements!

Most of the millennials surveyed for the study believe that they need at least a 15% down payment in order to buy a home when, in reality, the median down payment in the US in 2017 was just 5%, and many programs are available for even lower down payments!

The study goes on to point out that:

“Despite limited awareness, every state has programs that provide grants and loans to make homeownership more attainable, with average assistance in various states ranging from $2,436 to $21,171.”

Bottom Line

With so many young families now able to buy a home in today’s market, the demand for housing will continue for years to come. If you are one of the many millennials who have questions about their ability to buy in today’s market, let’s get together so we can assist you along your journey!

Real Estate • Uncategorized • October 17, 2018

Minimize and simplify your life. Are you ready?

by Kara Brem

October 17, 2018

Written through real-life experience by: Kara Brem

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Have you considered what it would feel like to let go of the “stuff” in your life and downsize? To remove all the excess items you’ve acquired over the years and really minimize?

I recently did just that and I will tell you…it feels better than I ever imagined. Everything I own now fits in my recently purchased 800 sq ft one bedroom La Costa condo and 1 car garage…including my car!

Living a minimalist lifestyle is not for everyone. It’s certainly a case-by-case scenario and if you still have little ones in the house there are other versions of minimalism or simplifying that can also be rewarding, without limiting your living space to an extreme degree.

In my situation, my independent daughter is 25 and has been out of the house for years. She’s not coming home to live with mom anytime soon. When she does come for a visit, I splurge and get her an airbnb right down the street. She has her space and I have mine. It’s perfect!

When I bought my little condo, people thought I was a tad off my rocker. Some thought I must be experiencing financial difficulties. WHY would I ever want to do such a thing and why live in a small space?

Well here you have it. These are the benefits I’ve experienced thus far in my minimizing adventure:

I know exactly where EVERYTHING I own is. No more searching through boxes or cabinets looking for that one item.
I’m organized beyond belief. You have to be in a small space!
Instead of buying a home that was MORE than I needed, I now have money to travel, explore, and enjoy life when I have the time off work. I’m not a slave to my mortgage.
My manageable mortgage payment allows me to start on my next life goal…purchasing investment properties to create future financial comfort and stability for my “later years”.
I don’t waste my money on anything I don’t need because it just doesn’t fit! If I want to purchase something, something else has to go first.

Letting go and giving away my excess “stuff” allowed me to share things I did not need with those that did. Smiles for days. This activity was enough to make me want to give away more and so I did! People are so appreciative and many needed these things much more than I did.

So, if this sounds like a way of life you’d like to explore and if you’re ready to downsize, let’s get started looking for your new home. It’s a great time to start a new, simple lifestyle and it starts with your home base. I’m happy to help and I’m so excited about this new way of life I just want everyone to experience it.

Uncategorized • September 11, 2018

What Does the Future Hold for Home Prices?

by Kara Brem

What Does the Future Hold for Home Prices? | MyKCM

Home prices are at the top of everyone’s minds. Can they maintain their current pace of appreciation? Will rising mortgage rates negatively impact home values? Will the next economic slowdown cause prices to crash?

Let’s try to answer these questions based on what has happened in the past as well as what we know about the current real estate market.

The Impact of Rising Interest Rates

We explained earlier this year that rising mortgage rates have not negatively impacted home prices in the past and probably wouldn’t this time either. Freddie Mac’s comments were very direct:

“In the current housing market, the driving force behind the increase in prices is a low supply of both new and existing homes combined with historically low rates. As mortgage rates increase, the demand for home purchases will likely remain strong relative to the constrained supply and continue to put upward pressure on home prices.”

They were correct. So far this year, home values have continued to appreciate above normal historic percentages and it appears the gradual increase in rates has had little impact on prices.

The Impact of an Economic Slowdown

Many people fear that when the economy turns, we may see the same depreciation in home values as we did a decade ago.

However, we recently reported that the same group of economists, real estate experts, and investment & market strategists who predicted the next recession will occur in the next 18-24 months have also projected that house prices will continue to appreciate for the next five years, albeit at smaller percentages.

It Comes Down to Supply and Demand

As always, home prices will be determined by the demand to purchase compared to the available inventory of homes for sale. For the last six years, demand has far exceeded the available supply which has resulted in the average annual appreciation to top 6% since 2012. That is far greater than the historic norm of 3.6% annual appreciation that we saw prior to the housing boom.

There are currently small signs that housing inventory is slowly beginning to increase. Months supply of houses for sale matched last year’s numbers for the last two months after 37 consecutive months of decreasing inventory. New construction data has also shown positive signs that inventory will be increasing.

As inventory begins to meet demand, we will see appreciation return to more normal levels. We are already seeing projections coming in lower than the 6.2% annual average we have seen more recently.

CoreLogic is predicting that home values will appreciate by 5.1% over the next twelve months and the Home Price Expectation Survey calls for values to increase by 4.2% in 2019.

Bottom Line

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explained it best:

“We’re seeing the first indications that price appreciation may be slowing, but the underlying fundamental housing market conditions support a natural moderation of house prices rather than a sharp decline.”

The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.

Uncategorized • August 21, 2018

Housing Market: Another Gigantic Difference Between 2008 and 2018

by Kara Brem

Some are attempting to compare the current housing market to the market leading up to the “boom and bust” that we experienced a decade ago. They look at price appreciation and conclude that we are on a similar trajectory, speeding toward another housing crisis.

However, there is a major difference between the two markets. Last decade, while demand was being artificially created by extremely loose lending standards, a tremendous amount of inventory was coming to the market to satisfy that demand. Below is a graph of the inventory of homes available for sale leading up to the 2008 crash.

A normal market should have approximately 6 months supply of housing inventory. As we can see, that number jumped to over 11 months supply leading up to the housing crisis. When questionable mortgage practices ceased, and demand dried up, there was a glut of inventory on the market which caused prices to drop as there was too much supply and not enough demand.

Today is radically different!

There are those who believe that low mortgage rates have created an artificial demand in the current market. They fear that if mortgage rates continue to rise, some of the current demand will dry up (which is a possibility).

However, if we look at supply again, we can see that the current supply of homes is well below the norm of 6 months.

Bottom Line

We will not have a glut of inventory like we did back in 2008 and home values won’t come tumbling down. Instead, if demand weakens, we will return to a normal market (approximately a 6-month supply) with historic levels of appreciation (3.6% annually).

Uncategorized • August 1, 2018

4 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Bubble

by Kara Brem

4 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Bubble | MyKCM

With home prices continuing to appreciate above historic levels, some are concerned that we may be heading for another housing ‘boom & bust.’ It is important to remember, however, that today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago.

Here are four key metrics that will explain why:

Home Prices
Mortgage Standards
Foreclosure Rates
Housing Affordability

1. HOME PRICES

There is no doubt that home prices have reached 2006 levels in many markets across the country. However, after more than a decade, home prices should be much higher based on inflation alone.

Last week, CoreLogic reported that,

“The inflation-adjusted U.S. median sale price in June 2006 was $247,110 (or $199,899 in 2006 dollars), compared with $213,400 in March 2018.” (This is the latest data available.)

2. MORTGAGE STANDARDS

Many are concerned that lending institutions are again easing standards to a level that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.

The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a monthly index which,

“…measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”

Their July Housing Credit Availability Index revealed:

“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”

3. FORECLOSURE RATES

A major cause of the housing crash last decade was the number of foreclosures that hit the market. They not only increased the supply of homes for sale but were also being sold at 20-50% discounts. Foreclosures helped drive down all home values.

Today, foreclosure numbers are lower than they were before the housing boom. Here are the number of consumers with new foreclosures according to the Federal Reserve’s most recent Household Debt and Credit Report:

2003: 203,320 (earliest reported numbers)
2009: 566,180 (at the valley of the crash)
Today: 76,480

Foreclosures today are less than 40% of what they were in 2003.

4. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

Contrary to many headlines, home affordability is better now than it was prior to the last housing boom. In the same article referenced in #1, CoreLogic revealed that in the vast majority of markets, “the inflation-adjusted, principal-and-interest mortgage payments that homebuyers have committed to this year remain much lower than their pre-crisis peaks.”

They went on to explain:

“The main reason the typical mortgage payment remains well below record levels in most of the country is that the average mortgage rate back in June 2006, when the U.S. typical mortgage payment peaked, was about 6.7 percent, compared with an average mortgage rate of about 4.4 percent in March 2018.”

The “price” of a home may be higher, but the “cost” is still below historic norms.

Bottom Line

After using these four key housing metrics to compare today to last decade, we can see that the current market is not anything like that bubble market.

Uncategorized • June 19, 2018

Why Real Estate May Be A Big Winner in the Tax Cuts and Job Act

by Kara Brem

On the surface it may look like the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is bad for real estate. The reduction in the deductibility of mortgage interest and the combined $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions for income, sales and property, along with the elimination of moving expense deductions would make a compelling argument. But after digging through the fine print, the outcome is that real estate may actually be the big winner.

The mortgage deduction has been reduced to $750,000 dollars for new homeowners, but the deductibility of current mortgage debt up to $1 million is still protected. The only change was that technically under the old law one could also deduct $100,000 of home-equity debt. This is no longer allowed unless an equity loan is used to substantially improve the residence.

However, let’s keep in mind that these mortgage provisions are due to sunset on Dec. 31, 2025. So, don’t run out and pay down your mortgage because you won’t be able to get the deductions back. These limits are short-lived.

Let’s delve a little deeper. How did real estate come out alright?

The deduction for mortgage interest on second homes survived although it initially appeared to be on the chopping block.
The ability to rent a primary or secondary home for up to 14 days a year and not pay taxes on the income survived.
A new deduction for pass-through entities benefits real estate, particularly real estate investment trusts. This will enable real estate partnerships and LLCs to get a new 20% deduction.
Real estate agents–unlike doctors, lawyers, financial planners and professional athletes–are not considered a service industry profession and therefore are exempt from the limit in their pass-through deductions if their income is higher than $207,500 or $415,000 for a couple.
Real estate professionals who work more than 750 hours a year can still deduct their real estate losses from ordinary income and lower income investors can still deduct passive income, such as real estate rentals.
The bill doubles the Section 179 deduction for qualifying expenses, allowing business to annually deduct up to $1 million on certain types of property expenses.
Land and property depreciation has been retained and the alternative depreciation system period for residential property has been shortened. This is a huge win for the industry because one of the key features to investing in real estate is depreciation because under U.S. accounting rules real estate loses value, even though it tends to rise in market value.
Changes in the carried interest deduction–one must now hold assets for three years instead of only one–will benefit real estate funds substantially more than other types of managed funds.
And finally, the lucrative 1031 tax free exchange rules that were on the initial chopping block were retained. Section 1031 allows real estate investors to defer capital gains taxes if they are using the money to purchase another property.

These are just a few of the benefits that real estate has received and only scratches the surface of the plethora of real estate strategies that continue to survive. Not only should commercial real estate benefit, but residential real estate still maintains its luster.

In the end, real estate may be the big winner but so is capitalism. After all, real estate is one of the foundations of an ownership society. As my favorite economist Hernando De Soto said in his book, The Mystery of Capital, “Real estate is why capitalism triumphs in the west and fails everywhere else.”

Source: forbes.com

Uncategorized • May 30, 2018

Why Have Interest Rates Jumped to a 7-Year High?

by Kara Brem

Interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage have climbed from 3.95% in the first week of January up to 4.61% last week, which marks a 7-year high according to Freddie Mac. The current pace of acceleration has been fueled by many factors.

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist, had this to say:

“Healthy consumer spending and higher commodity prices spooked bond markets and led to higher mortgage rates over the past week.

Not only are buyers facing higher borrowing costs, gas prices are currently at four-year highs just as we enter the important peak home sales season.”

But what do gas prices have to do with interest rates?

Investopedia explains the relationship like this:

“The price of oil and inflation are often seen as being connected in a cause-and-effect relationship. As oil prices move up or down, inflation follows in the same direction.”

You may have noticed that filling your gas tank has become substantially more expensive in recent months. The average national gas price has climbed nearly $0.50 from the beginning of the year, leading to the highest price for Memorial Day weekend since 2014.

As rates go up, your purchasing power goes down, but don’t worry; rates are still well below the averages we’ve seen over the last four decades.

“Freddie Mac said this year’s higher rates have not yet caused much of a ripple in the strong demand levels for buying a home seen in most markets, but inflationary pressures and the prospect of rates approaching 5 percent could begin to hit the psyche of some prospective buyers.”

Buying sooner rather than later will help lock in a lower rate than waiting, as the experts believe rates will continue to climb. Even a small increase in interest rates can have a big impact on your monthly housing cost.

Bottom Line

If you are planning on buying a home this year, keep an eye on gas prices the next time you’re at the pump. If you start to feel a big jump in price, know that rates are probably on their way up, too.

Uncategorized • May 17, 2018

JUST LISTED!

by Kara Brem

If you need a 3 bedroom home but can’t bear the prices of coastal north county, head inland just 9 miles and you can have the backyard and home of your dreams…while still enjoying the beach when you’d like!

Lakeview Estates and all nearby neighborhoods are increasing in value tremendously! Still so much equity to capture!
Call or text for a private showing 831-818-3050

MORE PROPERTY INFORMATION HERE